Canine distemper outbreak modeled in an animal shelter

Ashley Dantzler
Mathematics Department, University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, Chattanooga, TN, USA

Margaux Hujoel
Mathematics Department, Harvey Mudd College, Claremont, CA, USA

Virginia Parkman
Mathematics Department, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA

Ayana Wild
Mathematics Department, Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN, USA

Suzanne Lenhart
Mathematics Department, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA

Benjamin Levy
Mathematics Department, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, USA

Rebecca Wilkes
College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Tifton, GA, USA

Abstract

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is a highly contagious virus that can cause outbreaks, specifically in crowding situations, such as an animal shelter, in which a large number of susceptible dogs are brought together. Introduction of this virus into a shelter can have devastating effects, potentially resulting in shelter canine depopulation. Motivated by recent outbreaks in Tennessee, a mathematical model was constructed to find relevant factors that could assist in preventing or reducing outbreaks. A system of ordinary differential equations was derived to represent the spread of CDV through susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered (S–E–I–R) classes as well as a vaccinated (V) class. Our model was adapted to represent a local Knoxville shelter. The effects of various control methods, both preventative and corrective, on disease spread were investigated.

Keywords: Canine distemper ,infectious disease modelling ,basic reproductive number ,ordinary differential equations

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