SEIRD Model for Qatar COVID-19 Outbreak

A Case Study

Authors

  • Ryad Ghanam Department of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Virginia Commonwealth University in Qatar, Education City, Doha, Qatar Author
  • Edward L. Boone Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia, 23284, USA Author
  • Abdel-Salam G. Abdel-Salam Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30707/LiB8.1.1647878866.012596

Keywords:

SEIRD, Compartmental Model, Bayesian Statistics, Intervention Analysis, Modeling Technique

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles, Exposed, Infected, Recovered and Deaths status through time. A Bayesian Framework is utilized to perform both parameter estimation and predictions. This model uses interventions to quantify the impact of various government attempts to slow the spread of the virus. Predictions are also made to determine when the peak Active Infections will occur.

Author Biographies

  • Ryad Ghanam, Department of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Virginia Commonwealth University in Qatar, Education City, Doha, Qatar

    Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Liberal Arts and Sciences at Virginia Commonwealth University in Qatar.

  • Edward L. Boone, Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia, 23284, USA

    Professor of Statistics in the Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research at Virginia Commonwealth University

  • Abdel-Salam G. Abdel-Salam, Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics, College of Arts and Sciences, Qatar University, Doha, Qatar

    Associate Professor of Statistics,

    Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Physics

Downloads

Published

2021-02-18

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 1 (2021)

Section

Research

How to Cite

SEIRD Model for Qatar COVID-19 Outbreak: A Case Study. (2021). Letters in Biomathematics, 8(1), 19-28. https://doi.org/10.30707/LiB8.1.1647878866.012596

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