Mathematical Analysis and Parameter Estimation of a Two-Patch Zika Model

Abstract

In this paper, we developed a multi-patch model for the spread of Zika virus infection taking, into account direct and indirect transmissions along with vertical transmission. The model was analyzed to gain insights into the disease's spread. The model was fitted to a data set collected from two neighboring countries, Brazil and Colombia, to estimate some of its parameters and use it for calculating R₀ and sensitivity analysis. Our results show that R₀ is less than one in both countries, which indicates that the disease will die out. Also, our results show that direct transmission is the most important route for spreading the disease; hence, it has to gain more focus in any controlling strategy.