Mathematical modeling, analysis and simulation of the spread of Zika with influence of sexual transmission and preventive measures

Abstract

The Zika arbovirus transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquitoes has been shown to be capable of infecting humans via two routes: the bites of infected vectors and through sexual contacts involving infected and non-infected persons. There is no treatment and current prevention or mitigating efforts rely on the use of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommendations including the use of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITN) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). In this work, we investigate via a mathematical model, the role of ITN and IRS as methods for limiting the impact of Zika transmission. We introduce a model that builds on classical SEIR epidemiological single outbreak models. We compute the basic and control reproduction numbers and the final epidemic size in the presence of control measures ITN and IRS. We derive a gross estimate for the rate of sexual transmission, during the initial stages of the outbreak, in terms of prior estimates of the basic reproduction number from related albeit not sexually transmitted arboviral diseases.