Comparative Transmission Dynamics and Optimal Controls for Chikungunya, Dengue and Zika Virus Infections

A Case Study of Mexico

Abstract

In this study, we used a simple epidemic model and 2015–16 outbreak data of Chikungunya, Dengue and Zika viruses, arthropod mediated infections that are transmitted by the common mosquito vector Aedes aegypti, from Mexico to quantify the transmission rates (humans-to-mosquitoes and mosquitoes-to-humans) of the three diseases. The transmission rates are estimated for the observed data and consequently the basic reproduction number (R₀) is calculated 6.740, 2.904 and 12.6283 for Chikungunya, Dengue and Zika infection, respectively. Using the estimated parameters for the three diseases, we evaluated self-imposed controls measures by the population as a result of fear-driven behavior changes often seen during an outbreak. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis reveals that the parameter 'mosquitoes death rate' is the most sensitive one for R₀. Simulations of controlled basic reproduction number are also performed for all considered control measures. This study is likely to enrich the understanding about transmission of such viral infections and control strategies.