Epidemiology, Game Theory, and Evolutionary Rescue

Understanding How Outbreaks Impact Population Viability

Authors

  • Brandon Grandison National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, 1122 Volunteer Blvd., Suite 106, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, USA; Biology Department, University of Florida, 220 Bartram Hall P.O. Box 118525, Gainesville, Florida 32611, USA Author
  • Hannah Yin National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, 1122 Volunteer Blvd., Suite 106, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, USA Department of Biology, Tufts University, 200 College Avenue, Medford, MA 02155, USA Author
  • Ana Kilgore National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, 1122 Volunteer Blvd., Suite 106, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, USA ; Colorado College, 14 E, W Cache La Poudre St, Colorado Springs, Colorado 80903, USA Author
  • Matthew J. Young National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, 1122 Volunteer Blvd., Suite 106, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, USA Author
  • Jing Jiao National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, 1122 Volunteer Blvd., Suite 106, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, USA Author
  • Nina H. Fefferman National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, 1122 Volunteer Blvd., Suite 106, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, USA ; Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, The University of Tennessee, 1416 Circle Drive, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996, USA Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.30707/LiB10.1.1684158870.855659

Keywords:

conservation epidemiology, Infectious selective pressure, Evolutionary rescue, Life-history-epidemiology trade-offs

Abstract

Evolutionary game theory (EGT) analyzes the stability of competing strategies for withstanding selective pressures within a population over generations. Under rapid shifts in selective pressures (e.g., introduction of a novel pathogen), evolutionary rescue may preserve a population, but how it may re-stabilize over generations is also critical for estimations of population persistence. Here, we present a simple model that couples EGT with epidemiology to investigate evolutionary rescue under a novel and epidemiologically-driven dynamic selective pressure from an infectious outbreak. We consider a hypothetical population where payoffs from competing wild-type and mutant strategies reflect immune-reproductive trade-offs. Our study shows evolutionary rescue occurs under higher wild-type fecundity and a lower-bounded boost in mutant immunity prolongs the timescale of evolutionary rescue. Higher disease-induced mortality in the wild-type and a larger mutant immunity significantly reinforce the pattern. This model reveals transient synergies between epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics during evolutionary rescue during novel infectious outbreaks.

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Published

2023-05-10

Issue

Section

Research

How to Cite

Epidemiology, Game Theory, and Evolutionary Rescue: Understanding How Outbreaks Impact Population Viability. (2023). Letters in Biomathematics, 10(1), 75-86. https://doi.org/10.30707/LiB10.1.1684158870.855659

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