Mathematical model for the in-host malaria dynamics subject to malaria vaccines

Abstract

Despite the success of the existing malaria control strategies, reported malaria cases are still quite high. In 2016, the WHO reported about 216 million malaria cases; 90% of which occurred in the WHO African Region. In this paper, a mathematical model for the in-host Plasmodium falciparum malaria subject to malaria vaccines is formulated and analysed. An efficacious pre-erythrocytic vaccine is shown to greatly reduce the severity of clinical malaria. Based on the normalized forward sensitivity index technique, the average number of merozoites released per bursting blood schizont is shown to be the most sensitive parameter in the model. Numerical simulation results further suggest that an efficacious blood stage vaccine has the potential to reduce the burst size of the blood schizonts and maximize the rate of activation of CD8+ T cells during malaria infection. Moreover, vaccine combinations that are efficacious might help in achieving a malaria free population by the year 2030. This paper provides useful insights in malaria vaccine control and a unique opportunity to intensify support and funding for malaria vaccine development.